China's Double 11: AI and subsidies mask weakening consumer demand

China's largest annual shopping festival abandons GMV theatrics for structural transformation in 2025. Platforms prioritize AI infrastructure and 30-minute delivery.

• RMB 1,695B total GMV marks instant retail’s first material festival impact at RMB 67B.

• AI automation cut merchant costs RMB 200M daily while processing 150B consumer queries.

• Government RMB 300B subsidies drove sales but exposed demand weakness when funding paused.

• Simplified 15-20% direct discounts replaced complex mechanics, validating consumer fatigue with promotional math.

• Platforms compete on last-mile density as 30-minute delivery reshapes retail infrastructure requirements.

China’s Double 11 shopping festival originated at Nanjing University in 1993 as an anti-Valentine’s Day celebration among single students. Alibaba CEO Daniel Zhang commercialized the event in 2009, transforming it from a dorm-room tradition into the world’s largest retail event, generating USD 238B in 2025 compared to USD 35.3B during US Cyber Week.

The festival now serves as critical barometer for China’s consumption trajectory, accounting for 30% or more of annual sales for many brands while providing investors, corporates, and policymakers quarterly-level visibility into platform health, consumer sentiment, and stimulus efficacy.

Record GMV Masks Structural Shifts in 2025 Double 11 Consumer Trends China

Double 11 2025 generated RMB 1,695B in total GMV across all platforms from October 7 to November 11, according to third-party data monitor Syntun.

The 37-day campaign represents a 17.6% increase from 2024’s RMB 1,441.8B and marks the longest Double 11 in history, starting five days earlier than the previous year, Syntun reported in its post-festival analysis.

Platform GMV breakdown showed e-commerce platforms at RMB 1,619.1B, instant delivery platforms at RMB 67B, and community group-buying at RMB 9B. Tmall retained first position among comprehensive e-commerce platforms, though Alibaba declined to disclose specific figures following its practice since 2022.

JD reported 40% growth in shoppers and nearly 60% increase in orders in its official November 11 announcement, with app active users jumping 47.6% YoY according to third-party analytics.

The company achieved category dominance in key segments: 42.8% market share in home appliances, 39.1% in personal care, 56.9% in mobile phones, and 62.7% in computer devices, according to China Britain Business Council analysis of 2024 data.

Tmall recorded 80 brands surpassing RMB 100M in first-hour sales on opening day, with 38,000 brands achieving over 100% YoY GMV growth, according to Alibaba.

The platform’s 88VIP membership program reached 53M members, with daily purchasing users up 39% YoY, as reported in Alibaba’s Q2 FY2025 earnings call.

Douyin demonstrated the fastest growth trajectory among major platforms, with over 16,000 brands doubling sales YoY, according to the platform’s October 18 pre-Double 11 report.

Store broadcasts crossing RMB 10M in sales surged 900% YoY, while individual store livestream rooms exceeding RMB 10M increased 200%, Douyin disclosed.

Emerging platforms captured market share through differentiated positioning.

Xiaohongshu reported 77% traffic growth in the first 48 hours, leveraging its Million Commission-Free Plan to attract merchants, according to iFans analysis.

Bilibili, with 109M daily active users comprising 70% post-90s and post-00s generation, achieved nearly 60% new customer rates, Moomoo reported citing platform data.

The festival timeline fragmentation reflected intensifying platform competition. Kuaishou launched October 7, followed by JD and Douyin on October 9, Tmall on October 15, and Pinduoduo on October 16, according to Securities Times. This staggered approach allowed platforms to spread peak infrastructure loads while capturing distinct consumer segments.

Luxury and Emotional Goods Lead Double 11 E-commerce Strategies China Brands Deploy

Luxury goods led Double 11 2025 performance metrics, with top houses including Bulgari, Celine, Fendi, and Loewe nearly doubling revenue in the first 10 minutes of sales, according to Moomoo’s November 11 analysis.

Burberry, Prada, and comparable brands increased over 227% in opening window transactions, the report stated. The results validated premium positioning strategies despite broader macro consumption concerns.

International beauty brands drove 24% category growth, with Estée Lauder, La Mer, and L’Oréal dominating performance charts, according to Securities Times. Swiss beauty brand La Prairie’s GMV during the first four hours exceeded the entire 2024 Double 11 sales period, Alizila reported.

Domestic brands challenged international players, with Proya and Perlaya crossing RMB 100M in presale first-hour sales through product innovation and consumer engagement strategies, Campaign Asia noted.

Electronics categories showed bifurcated performance. AI glasses sales jumped 25x YoY as consumers adopted emerging form factors, according to People’s Daily.

Smart glasses increased 346%, while robotics brands recorded double-digit growth, the article stated. Mobile phone and computer device sales concentrated on JD, which captured 56.9% and 62.7% market shares respectively in these segments, according to China Britain Business Council analysis.

Apparel remained highly competitive across platforms.

Tmall captured 57.5% market share, Douyin took 26%, and JD secured 17%, according to Ebrun November 10 data. Over 10 brands including Uniqlo and Bosideng exceeded RMB 100M in sales, with down jacket category moving 10M+ units, Ebrun reported. The results reflected consumer prioritization of functional winter wear amid economic uncertainty.

The emotional economy category delivered outsized growth. Jellycat plush toys increased 230% YoY in the first two hours of October 21 presales, surpassing all of 2024’s first-day performance, according to Campaign Asia.

Pop Mart’s Labubu series drove RMB 1.2B in sales with over 700% annual growth, demonstrating Double 11 Gen Z shopping behaviour China consumers willing to allocate discretionary spending toward identity-expressing products, China Briefing reported.

Gaming merchandise and blind boxes more than doubled during Double 11, reflecting consumer desire for products offering emotional comfort, according to Xinhua News.

Travel and experiences captured nearly 30% of young consumer Double 11 spending, with shoppers allocating over 50% of budgets to entertainment and outdoor activities, LinkedIn analysis noted.

Pet products boomed across platforms. Functional pet food, smart water dispensers, and automated litter boxes accounted for 60% of stockpile voucher redemptions, according to GH Material.

The category growth reflected China’s expanding pet ownership among urban millennials and Gen Z consumers.

Home appliances benefited directly from government trade-in subsidies. 139 brands exceeded RMB 14M in GMV, with over 9,600 home appliance and furniture brands doubling sales YoY, according to Queue-it’s November 2025 statistics compilation.

The category performance demonstrated subsidy program effectiveness in stimulating replacement purchases for durable goods.

Rational Spending Meets Emotional Indulgence in 2025 Double 11 Consumer Trends China

Consumer behavior in 2025 reflected fundamental shift toward rational consumption.

Over one-third of shoppers prioritized planned, necessary purchases versus impulsive buying that characterized earlier Double 11 editions, according to DAO Insights analysis.

This maturation stemmed from prolonged property crisis, income security concerns, and saturation of previous promotional mechanics.

Platform simplification of pricing structures validated consumer fatigue with complex promotional mathematics. Previous years required calculating multiple coupon stacks, cross-store discounts, and time-limited offers.

This “Olympic math” approach increased decision friction and eroded platform trust, Morketing reported.

All major platforms adopted direct discount strategies for 2025. JD implemented official price cuts of 5-20%, with some products reduced to 10% of original price, according to Sina Finance.